We’re now about halfway through Victoria’s grass pollen season, so here’s your mid-season update on how things have unfolded so far and what to expect for the rest of the year.

Back in September, we noted that dry conditions over winter were likely to result in a lighter-than-average grass pollen season, similar to what we saw in 2024. However, we also pointed out that if spring turned wetter, as was forecast, it could create ideal conditions for more vigorous grass growth and potentially a heavier pollen season.

The start of spring was drier than usual across much of Victoria, with soil moisture levels rated as average in some areas and below average in others. Persistent dry conditions tend to limit pasture growth and lead to lighter pollen seasons. However, forecasts suggested a shift toward wetter conditions in October to December.

As Figure 1 shows, most of Victoria received average rainfall in October (white), with above-average rainfall (light blue) recorded in parts of the west and south. Along the NSW border, rainfall was generally below average (light red). Most of October’s rain arrived late in the month as a series of intense weather systems crossed the state, and this cooler, wetter pattern has continued into November.

Figure 1. Victorian Rainfall Deciles for October 2025. Image adapted from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Figure 2 compares cumulative grass pollen totals for Victoria’s seven monitoring stations along with the five-year averages for Melbourne and Churchill (Churchill typically records the state’s highest grass pollen levels and Melbourne the lowest). It’s worth noting that the five-year average includes the wetter La Niña years of 2020–2022, which produced some of the heaviest grass pollen seasons in recent memory.

Figure 2. Cumulative grass pollen load recorded so far in the 2025 season at Victoria’s seven monitoring sites, compared with the 5-year average (2020–2024) for Melbourne and Churchill.

So far this year, grass pollen levels in Melbourne and Hamilton are tracking close to the Melbourne average. In Geelong and Ballarat, levels have been below this trend, while Churchill and Wodonga are both well above the Churchill average. In short, this is shaping up to be an average season overall, albeit noticeably heavier than 2024, with a stronger season potentially emerging in Gippsland and the northeast.

How’s it been for you? You can use the Melbourne Pollen App to log your symptoms and see how they compare with current grass pollen levels.

The grassland curing maps in Figure 3 show that curing is much less advanced than at this time last year. Grassland curing is the natural process where grasses dry out after flowering and enter dormancy. This year, recent rainfall, higher soil moisture, and warmer temperatures have kept grasses green and flowering longer.

Figure 3. Grassland curing percentage for 17/11/2025 compared to 18/11/2024. Images adapted from the CFA.

We expect to see more high and extreme grass pollen days this year compared with 2024. These are the days that pose the greatest risk for people with hay fever and asthma. For Melbourne, the forecast suggests around 11 more high or extreme pollen days before the end of the year. Please stay alert and take steps to protect your health.

How to Prepare

If you’re affected by hay fever or asthma, preparation is key.

• Stay informed: Track daily pollen forecasts using the Melbourne Pollen App, available on the Apple App or Google Play store,
• Plan ahead: Adjust outdoor activities on high grass pollen days.
• Be prepared: Talk to your healthcare provider about an asthma or allergy action plan.

Where to Get Pollen Information

The Melbourne Pollen App is available on both the Apple App or Google Play store. It provides real-time notifications about pollen levels across Victoria. You can also follow the Melbourne Pollen Team on X (Twitter) and Facebook for daily updates and forecasts.