As we approach the peak of spring, it’s essential to remain aware of the heightened risk of epidemic thunderstorm asthma. For tomorrow, Wednesday, 27 November 2024, much of Victoria is forecast to be at a Moderate Risk level. This blog post explains what the forecast means, how it’s determined, and what steps you can take to stay safe.

Understanding the Risk Forecast

“The combination of grass pollen and specfic weather conditions can create the perfect storm for asthma triggers. It's very important that everyone keeps an eye on the forecast and plan ahead,” explains Dr. Edwin Lampugnani from Melbourne Pollen.

The epidemic thunderstorm asthma risk forecasting system combines data on grass pollen levels and specific thunderstorm conditions known to trigger asthma events. Using a color-coded scale, the forecast categorizes risk levels as:

• Green (Low Risk): The elements necessary for an epidemic thunderstorm asthma event are not expected and an event is unlikely.
• Orange (Moderate Risk): One of the elements necessary for an event may be present (i.e. a high pollen forecast or a severe thunderstorm with strong winds) and there is a moderate chance of an epidemic thunderstorm asthma event occurring.
• Red (High Risk): Both high pollen forecast and severe thunderstorm(s) with strong winds are likely to be present increasing the risk of an epidemic thunderstorm asthma event occuring.

For tomorrow, much of the state, including central and southern regions, is under Moderate Risk.

It’s important to note that the forecast serves as an informative tool, not a formal warning, helping individuals and health services prepare for potential risks. A higher risk does not guarantee an event, and a lower risk does not eliminate the possibility.

What Should You Do on Days with Moderate Risk?

“Thunderstorm asthma can strike unexpectedly, impacting not only those with asthma but also individuals who have never experienced respiratory issues before. Staying informed and have a plan in place,” advises Dr. Lampugnani.

Even at Moderate Risk, taking precautions can make a significant difference:

• Stay indoors during storms: Thunderstorms can trigger asthma by dispersing pollen particles into the air. Avoid exposure to storm winds.
• Carry your medication: Ensure you have a reliever inhaler (e.g., Ventolin) readily available and use it as prescribed.
• Follow your asthma action plan: If you have asthma, remind yourself of the steps to manage symptoms, including the four steps of asthma first aid.
• Set up alerts: Stay informed by downloading the VicEmergency app to receive updates for your area. The Melbourne Pollen App also syndicates Thunderstorm Asthma Forecasts on behalf of the Department of Health.

Why Is This Season Particularly Risky?

Grass pollen levels peak from October to December, driven by the flowering of grass—the primary culprit behind thunderstorm asthma in Victoria. Combined with thunderstorms, which can fragment pollen into particles small enough to reach deep inside our lungs, these conditions create an elevated risk for asthma and hay fever symptoms.

“Spring brings the peak of grass pollen levels in Victoria, and when combined with thunderstorm conditions, the risk of thunderstorm asthma increases significantly. These factors create a challenging season for respiratory health,” explains Dr. Lampugnani.

The Victorian Government supports grass pollen monitoring at multiple sites across the state, including Melbourne, Geelong, and Ballarat. Data is shared with the public through the Melbourne Pollen Service.

More Resources

For more information on how to prepare for thunderstorm asthma and manage asthma symptoms, check out these trusted resources:

• Victorian Department of Health: https://www.health.vic.gov.au/environmental-health/epidemic-thunderstorm-asthma-risk-forecast.
• National Asthma Council Australia: https://www.nationalasthma.org.au
• Asthma Australia: https://www.asthma.org.au